Despite the professional necessity to analyze the economic, geopolitical, and liquidity scenarios of how Russia’s invasion of Ukraine could play out, I struggle to do so through clear eyes. To draw conclusions that are optimistic to global asset prices from current levels feels almost inappropriate. The Ukrainian people face an unfathomable hardship, and whatever the
outcome, Russian citizens, the vast majority who are innocent in all this, will feel the
consequences of an unstable banking system and sanctions for years to come. Russia’s
leadership and the oligarchs who have underwritten Putin’s power and enormous personal
wealth will be inconvenienced. Sergei Lavrov may not make it to Canne this summer, and
Chelsea Football Club may have a new owner, but like all the tragedies the world has faced in the past thirty years, those with the lowest exposure to financial assets face the greatest risk